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论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2016-11-01

发表刊物：WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

收录刊物：SCIE、EI、Scopus

卷号：52

期号：11

页面范围：9036-9045

ISSN号：0043-1397

摘要：In this paper, we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived with marginal utility principle. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for present and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategy. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration deficit in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger variability in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.